Latest Model Trends

The 00z NAM has been released, and SREF parameters have been updated. Confidence is increasing in this event for tomorrow. Alot of the questions that I posed in my previous post are somewhat clearer. I have great confidence that KC will hit 80 degrees tomorrow. The dew point will rapidly climb to nearly 70 degrees in the afternoon. The latest models show sufficient helicity along the surface boundaries to support surface supercells. The cap should be broken in the afternoon/evening because of extreme forcing. Instability will be very high- the atmosphere will rapidly destabalize in the afternoon leading to ML and MU CAPE >3000 j/kg. The LLJ should intensify and combine with existing shear in the atmosphere to allow for a small window of potentially significant tornado threat. The latest supercell composite, which maxes out at 12, has the entire region in that '12'. Supercells are very likely. Surface based supercells should also form early on in convective development near the surface boundaries in the saturated warm sector. This means that from Lawrence. . . to St. Joseph. . . to Kirksville. . . to Marshall. . . to Ottawa. . . and back to Lawrence, a region will emerge where a potentially volatile tornado situation could take shape sometime in the late afternoon tomorrow. 5PM-8PM is my best guess. We now begin to nowcast. . . and make forecasts based on current surface observations.

For tonight, strong thunderstorms are developing south of an Iola to Clinton line. Pea sized hail and vivid lightning is likely with this storms. I don't think these storms will result in any severe weather threat.

For tomorrow, here are my main points:

• Before 12PM- showers and thunderstorms around, moving to the north. Pea sized hail, gusty winds, and lightning are likely. Severe hail isn't out of the question but is becoming increasingly less likely.


• 12PM-5PM- skies will clear out and temperatures will climb to around 80 degrees, with an extremely humid summer-like airmass in the city. Clouds may start to build toward the end of this period. Pay close attention to forecasts for later in the night.


• 5PM-10PM-Our confidence in a SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT for KC is growing with each model trend. During this time, destructive hail, severe wind gusts, and tornados will be possible with any storms that develop. Make sure you stay up-to-date with the latest forecast information. Also, ensure that you and/or your family have a severe weather plan ready to be implimented should a tornado and/or severe thunderstorm warning be issued for your area.


• 10PM and on-Another round of severe weather is possible as the cold front moves through. Very large hail and damaging winds are possible, especially if a bow echo can form. The tornado threat is relatively low with these storms, but the formation of a couple of brief tornados is not all that rare on the leading edge of a bow echo.

My updated outlook is below. Remember, things still can change, but let's hope for the best, and prepare for the worst. Have a good night everyone, keep in mind tomorrow will feel so much better than all these cold days we've been having- and, the severe risk, while significant, should only last a few hours in the evening.