Severe Weather Pushing Into the Metro

One particularly nasty SEVERE THUNDERSTORM is affecting northern parts of the metro, with a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING in effect for NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WYANDOTTE...LEAVENWORTH
AND ATCHISON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHERN BUCHANAN
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND PLATTE...WESTERN CLAY AND WEST
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 745 PM CDT... (via the NWS warning text)

Destructive winds close to 80MPH and hail up to the size of golf balls has been reported, with unconfirmed reports of funnels and tornadoes. On Doppler radar, this supercell is amazing to watch, with strong rotation near the surface. This strong rotation can mean two things- that the reports of funnels/tornadoes are true, or that local areas of even stronger winds are occurring in 'downbursts'-where a massive amount of air is forced towards the ground at once, which can be just as or even more damaging as a tornado. Because of this, people in the affected areas should take their tornado precautions to protect themselves from destructive winds and very large hail. The largest hail is likely occurring in Atchison county where a portion of the cell has broken off.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH remains in effect for the entire region, and more severe thunderstorms are developing to the north and west of this main cell. Any that bear specific watching will be mentioned on here as the night progresses.

Severe Weather Outbreak Today

The image above depicts a MODERATE RISK area outlined in yellow issued by the Storm Prediction Center that indicates a significant risk of a SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK affecting the Kansas City area this afternoon and evening. The moderate risk was issued primarily because of the likelihood of supercell thunderstorms developing ahead of an advancing cold front that could produce VERY LARGE HAIL, sometimes in excess of the size of golf balls. Along with large hail, and once the storms form quasi-linear segments later this evening, a damaging wind threat will also become more prominent. A lesser, yet still apparent, threat is that of tornadoes, which are likely to be present in isolated amounts, especially during a brief period in time right after the thunderstorms form and move through a line from Emporia-Kansas City-Kirksville. Once more information is available, I'll update the blog as this has become a nowcasting situation. Stay tuned to local media outlets and NOAA weather radio for updates on today's weather event.

First Tornado Watch of the Year... March 22

The above imagine shades the counties that are currently under a TORNADO WATCH until 9PM CDT tonight for the possibility of severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes. Some thunderstorms are already firing in northern KS/southern NE and will strengthen and build southward while moving to the west during the coming hours. I'm giving a 40% chance of people seeing thunderstorms here in KC as the storms will be scattered, but because of their isolated nature there is an increased risk of supercells developing, which can produce tornadoes. Regardless, the threat for any severe weather is only modest at best, but isolated tornadoes are likely. Stay tuned to NWS radio and local media for more information. I'll update later when more storms develop.

BLIZZARD WARNING... Heavy Snow Begins

1PM UPDATE

I've observed some of the latest trends and it appears that Kansas City will be part of a narrow area that I think will see more than 12" of snow. My apologies for the variations in snowfall forecasts, but weather is an ever-changing phenomenon and now that the event has started, we have a much better handle on the snowfall situation. The heaviest snow is still forecasted to fall in Missouri between the I-70 and I-44 corridors.
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Here is a current (12:30PM) Doppler radar image of the snowstorm. Notice that it has entirely engulfed the region with 20MPH winds already being reported with substantial blowing and drifting of snow.
The heaviest snow is currently to the southeast of KC, but it is moving to the northwest. While I'm still in general agreement with my snowfall forecast I posted last night, I want to stress that any areas caught under bands of thundersnow could easily see locally higher snow accumulations. I'll keep watching the trends and post updates throughout the day as information becomes available. Remember, a BLIZZARD WARNING remains in effect through noon tomorrow for the KC metro area. Travel is not recommended.

Snow is falling...

A BLIZZARD WARNING remains in effect for most of the KC metro until 6AM Wednesday as the region prepares to grind to a halt with one of the biggest storms in decades on our doorstep. I've updated the snowfall forecast to reflect the latest trends, which suggest accumulations may be higher than expected in some locations, but the heaviest accumulations will be off to the east and southeast. I am now expecting most everyone here in KC to see 10" -12" of snow with locally higher amounts for those of you caught in thundersnow or heavier snow bands. Remember, this forecast can still change but as of right now I've curtailed my forecast for the immediate area based on recent model trends.

The most important thing to note about this storm is that the amount of accumulation is really just a number; anyone who receives at least six or so inches of snow will be impacted in virtually the same way because of the high winds tomorrow which will lead to white-out conditions. Once again, travel is not recommended tomorrow. I'll update with more information later.

CRIPPLING BLIZZARD IMMINENT

8:15PM UPDATE

School has been canceled for the major Johnson County districts: Blue Valley USD 229, Olathe School District USD 233, and Shawnee Mission School District USD 512.

7:30PM UPDATE

The latest data from the NWS suggests that the heaviest snowfall will likely occur in areas of 'thundersnow' where thunderstorms occur and produce snowfall rates close to or exceeding 4" per hour, which is truly a meteorological anomaly.

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An unprecedented winter storm, the likes of which Kansas City hasn't seen in decades, will start impacting the region late tonight, with blizzard conditions forecast for much of the day tomorrow. Multiple warnings and advisories are in effect for the entire region, and the map below depicts these warnings by county: (after the break I'll explain what this means)The light pink color indicates counties that are under a WINTER STORM WARNING until 6AM Wednesday. A WINTER STORM WARNING means that a potentially dangerous and life-threatening winter storm is imminent or occurring with the potential for ice, sleet, and snow. While minor ice accumulations are possible, the most significant risk is for heavy snow.

The dark red color indicates countries that are under a BLIZZARD WARNING until 6AM Wednesday. A BLIZZARD WARNING means that a crippling heavy snow event coupled with very strong winds (35MPH+) is imminent or occurring with little or no visibility making travel nearly, if not entirely, impossible.

Since I know this is on everyone's minds... my updated snowfall map is posted below. The large blue area that covers the KC metro area is split with a dotted line going down the middle, with snowfall totals forecast between 10" - 14" to the west of that line and 14" - 18" to the east of that line. The area forecast to receive 18" or more of snow could see up to 26" in some areas. Regardless of where you're located in this snowfall map, the strong winds will produce drifts up to five or six feet deep in many areas.So what are the expected impacts of this winter storm? Aside from travel being relatively impossible for most of the day tomorrow and possibly on Wednesday, widespread power outages as a result of the strong winds are likely across the region. Make sure to check on elderly neighbors to make sure they are able to get out of their house should the snow be high enough, and to ensure that they are comfortable should they lose power and with it, heat. Stock up on food and blankets tonight and prepare for a few days without power at the worst. Travel is not recommended under any circumstances tomorrow.

I'll update as more information becomes available.

BLIZZARD WARNING...

A BLIZZARD WARNING has been issued for the Kansas City metro and areas to the south, southeast, and east. I'll update with a map of the exact counties later. Also, a WINTER STORM WARNING remains in effect for the entire central US region.

A BLIZZARD WARNING means that heavy snow and high winds are forecast over a prolonged period of time; with winds close to 40MPH at times. Visibility will be reduced to less than a fourth of a mile and travel will be impossible much of the day Tuesday. Avoid travel at all costs... being stranded in this storm is highly dangerous and potentially deadly.

As for accumulations, I'm still thinking much of the metro will see over a foot of snow, with much more in some locations, especially the farther south and east the location is. I'll post more information with an updated snowfall map later tonight.

For the rest of this evening, minor icing is possible with the freezing drizzle in the area. Be careful on untreated roads.