Snow is falling...

A BLIZZARD WARNING remains in effect for most of the KC metro until 6AM Wednesday as the region prepares to grind to a halt with one of the biggest storms in decades on our doorstep. I've updated the snowfall forecast to reflect the latest trends, which suggest accumulations may be higher than expected in some locations, but the heaviest accumulations will be off to the east and southeast. I am now expecting most everyone here in KC to see 10" -12" of snow with locally higher amounts for those of you caught in thundersnow or heavier snow bands. Remember, this forecast can still change but as of right now I've curtailed my forecast for the immediate area based on recent model trends.

The most important thing to note about this storm is that the amount of accumulation is really just a number; anyone who receives at least six or so inches of snow will be impacted in virtually the same way because of the high winds tomorrow which will lead to white-out conditions. Once again, travel is not recommended tomorrow. I'll update with more information later.

CRIPPLING BLIZZARD IMMINENT

8:15PM UPDATE

School has been canceled for the major Johnson County districts: Blue Valley USD 229, Olathe School District USD 233, and Shawnee Mission School District USD 512.

7:30PM UPDATE

The latest data from the NWS suggests that the heaviest snowfall will likely occur in areas of 'thundersnow' where thunderstorms occur and produce snowfall rates close to or exceeding 4" per hour, which is truly a meteorological anomaly.

PREVIOUS ENTRY BELOW

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An unprecedented winter storm, the likes of which Kansas City hasn't seen in decades, will start impacting the region late tonight, with blizzard conditions forecast for much of the day tomorrow. Multiple warnings and advisories are in effect for the entire region, and the map below depicts these warnings by county: (after the break I'll explain what this means)The light pink color indicates counties that are under a WINTER STORM WARNING until 6AM Wednesday. A WINTER STORM WARNING means that a potentially dangerous and life-threatening winter storm is imminent or occurring with the potential for ice, sleet, and snow. While minor ice accumulations are possible, the most significant risk is for heavy snow.

The dark red color indicates countries that are under a BLIZZARD WARNING until 6AM Wednesday. A BLIZZARD WARNING means that a crippling heavy snow event coupled with very strong winds (35MPH+) is imminent or occurring with little or no visibility making travel nearly, if not entirely, impossible.

Since I know this is on everyone's minds... my updated snowfall map is posted below. The large blue area that covers the KC metro area is split with a dotted line going down the middle, with snowfall totals forecast between 10" - 14" to the west of that line and 14" - 18" to the east of that line. The area forecast to receive 18" or more of snow could see up to 26" in some areas. Regardless of where you're located in this snowfall map, the strong winds will produce drifts up to five or six feet deep in many areas.So what are the expected impacts of this winter storm? Aside from travel being relatively impossible for most of the day tomorrow and possibly on Wednesday, widespread power outages as a result of the strong winds are likely across the region. Make sure to check on elderly neighbors to make sure they are able to get out of their house should the snow be high enough, and to ensure that they are comfortable should they lose power and with it, heat. Stock up on food and blankets tonight and prepare for a few days without power at the worst. Travel is not recommended under any circumstances tomorrow.

I'll update as more information becomes available.

BLIZZARD WARNING...

A BLIZZARD WARNING has been issued for the Kansas City metro and areas to the south, southeast, and east. I'll update with a map of the exact counties later. Also, a WINTER STORM WARNING remains in effect for the entire central US region.

A BLIZZARD WARNING means that heavy snow and high winds are forecast over a prolonged period of time; with winds close to 40MPH at times. Visibility will be reduced to less than a fourth of a mile and travel will be impossible much of the day Tuesday. Avoid travel at all costs... being stranded in this storm is highly dangerous and potentially deadly.

As for accumulations, I'm still thinking much of the metro will see over a foot of snow, with much more in some locations, especially the farther south and east the location is. I'll post more information with an updated snowfall map later tonight.

For the rest of this evening, minor icing is possible with the freezing drizzle in the area. Be careful on untreated roads.

MAJOR WINTER STORM FORECASTED

Good evening everyone, most models and forecasters alike are agreeing that this weeks storm will unfold into, as the NWS put it, a 'dangerous and potentially life-threatening' situation. A WINTER STORM WARNING is in effect from 3AM tomorrow morning until 6AM Wednesday morning for ice, sleet, and snow accumulations. Most of the day tomorrow, the KC metro will see light freezing rain and drizzle that will make for slippery roads and some dangerous driving conditions.

By tomorrow night, the freezing rain will have tapered to flurries and the precipitation may let up for a few hours. By midnight Tuesday, however, snow will be moving in from the southwest, and over the next six to eight hours, the snow will increase in intensity. By noon on Tuesday, very heavy snow will be falling over much of the metro, and will continue through the afternoon and evening hours. It will begin to lighten up around midnight Wednesday, and should have ended for most of us by Wednesday morning. Blowing snow is possibly all day Wednesday, creating high drifts.

Here is my snowfall forecast for this week's storm:

Expect BLIZZARD CONDITIONS for most of the day Tuesday as winds will be sustained between twenty and thirty-five miles per hour, with gusts close to fifty miles per hour, leading to white-out travel conditions that may, essentially, bring travel and communication to a halt over much of the central United States before this storm moves off to the northeast.

Because of the probability of blizzard conditions, the local NWS office will consider upgrading the Winter Storm Warning to a Blizzard Warning sometime later tonight or tomorrow. Remember, a WINTER STORM WARNING means a variety of precipitation is possible, including sleet, freezing rain, and snow.

Please stay tuned to the latest forecasts, be careful traveling tomorrow as roads will be slick, and try your hardest to change any travel and work plans you may have for Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning in preparation for this massive winter storms.

New Snowfall Forecast and WINTER STORM WARNING

Above is my latest snowfall forecast that contains some model data along with current Doppler radar indications and ground observations. Notice that the position of the heaviest snowfall has been shifted southward into the immediate KC metropolitan area. Next is the winter weather watch/warning/advisory map.
Notice that the whole region is blanketed with advisories, with KC in the heart of the winter storm warnings. A winter storm warning is only issued when a major winter storm will lead to life-threatening travel situations. With snowfall rates of 1"+ per hour for a few hours during the evening commute, I can't stress enough how important it is to leave work early and change your travel plans to avoid commuting during this weather. The visibility will be poor and the roads will be slick, and extremely difficult, if not impossible, to drive on. I'll update as I find out more. Have a safe evening.

2nd Winter Storm of the Season

Hello everyone! I'm sorry I didn't post for the last storm- we were just getting back to school so things were very busy. This next storm will start dropping snow in the area tomorrow afternoon and by the evening commute conditions will really start to deteriorate. The latest forecast models are indicating that snow totals of 8 - 10" are possible in a very narrow band, most likely just to the north and east of Kansas City, although there is some uncertainty as to whether it will be positioned slightly further south (bringing more snow to the immediate metropolitan area). Within this band, we may see localized amounts reaching or just exceeding a foot of snow. In the graphic below, I've outlined the probable accumulations for the region, and have also included the possible higher amounts. For example, while the immediate area is forecast to receive 6 - 8" of snow, some areas might see up to 8 - 10".(click for a larger view)

As you can see, most of us here can expect to see 4 - 8" of snow, but for those of you up in the northland, I wouldn't doubt people seeing accumulations closing in on one foot. I'll update when more information becomes available. Remember a WINTER STORM WATCH is in effect for tomorrow into Thursday because of the potential for these significant snow accumulations affecting the commute. Also note that during tomorrow's evening commute, the roads (including highways and primary roads) will become very slick, so try to come home early from work to avoid the roads. Have a great evening!

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EDIT: My apologies on the map labels for the lightest shade of blue- I meant '<2"'. (Less than two inches instead of greater than two inches.) Sorry about that! By the way, if anyone is reading this, would you like me to post a school closing forecast? I thought it might be cool to test my accuracy this time!