06z SPC Day 2 Outlook just came out, in general agreement with my forecast but allows for a greater general risk area to the south and to the east into IL. Isolated storms may form toward the IL region and into TX, and any that do form could become severe quite quickly, although I think the chances that anything will form (in the way ofthunderstorms) will be much higher in extreme northeast OK, east central and northeast KS, and west central and northwest MO. I think they draw the 30% a little too far to the north. . . any significant threat should stay well south of a St. Joseph to Maryville line in north MO, at least looking at the set up right now. I'll watch this situation very closely and right now surface based supercells, with tornadic potential, will be likely for a small period of time from mid to late afternoon on Wednesday, with the KC metro, points just to the south, west, and northeast, being the bullseye for the threat. But remember- forecasts constantly change and any number of factors could come into play to inhibit or increase our severe weather threat. I'll be analyzing the models and update tomorrow afternoon.
And as for the rest of the night- isolated showers with a rumble of thunder possible will continue, primarily on the MO side, for a few more hours. Again, no severe weather threat. Tomorrow should be a great day- forecast high in the lower 70s, finally- some spring weather.
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