A POTENTIALLY VOLATILE SETUP EXISTS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALL POSSIBLE AS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TRACK EASTWARD...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
11:30 EDIT
Not much different in tonight's 00z runs for 00z Tuesday (7PM Monday). Low should still be well to the southwest, and a number of the different models indicate highest cape levels will be south and southwest of the city where a very large outbreak of tornadoes will occur. As for KC- right now it appears that we'll be located in the warm sector, but that storms will reach us likely sometime around 10PM Monday if models verify. CAPE/Craven-Brooks levels remain surprisingly low. . . but other instability/supercell/tornado parameters are supportive of continued tornado threat in the thunderstorms reaching us late in the night, which the NWS echos in their latest outlook. To me, far southeast KS and northeast OK has the highest threat of dangerous storms, and as long-term CAPE outlooks are often somewhat deceptive. . . I would say forecasts for this area will continue to need close attention. While I think it is apparent that large hail and winds will threaten the area, the tornado threat is a little less clear. The NWS and SPC seem to be sold on a higher threat for KC, but I am not.
If I was to make a forecast right now, I would say storms will fire very late in the evening along the dryline up to the triple-point, and a significant tornado situation will likely unfold from east OK into southeast KS, moving into extreme west MO and NW AK overnight. As the thunderstorms retain their surface based supercellular structure but move into an area of lower instability, a very large hail threat will likely evolve for the metro area.
However, that may change. I will update with the 1AM Day 2 SPC convective outlook, and see where things stand then. Shear values are off the charts for tornadoes here, although I believe instability may be in question Monday night. Lets see how the SPC interprets things in a couple of hours, and I'll look back through the model runs to see if I can corroborate what they are predicting.
For now, please pay close attention to Monday night's forecast. . . as a very dangerous situation will likely evolve somewhere in this region, but how widespread and late that will continue for is a matter to be reviewed many more times.
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