Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Severe Weather Update

10:30 PM UPDATE

The line of thunderstorms (none currently severe warned) out to our west by 1 or 2 hours is beginning to bow out, showing signs that some of the winds on the leading edge of these storms is meeting or exceeding severe limits, and a parts of the line have exhibited signs of brief lower-level rotation when they overtook other, smaller, thunderstorms. These may become severe warned with a risk for up to 60-70 mph winds, and a very, very, slight chance for an isolated tornado-

and, well mid-blog the NWS in Pleasant Hill has issued a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING for Leavenworth and southeast Atchison counties in KS and western Platte county in Missouri until 11:15 PM.

The latest velocity scan out of the Topeka NEXRAD is indicating surface winds pushing 70 mph. Also, the latest scans have indicated a strengthening surface rotation couplet south of Lawrence. I'll watch these storms for the next half an hour or so and update on any new developments.

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All severe thunderstorms in the area have weakened. Flash flood warnings remain in effect for most of the metro until 5:30 AM tomorrow. The tornado watch will expire at midnight along with the severe thunderstorm watch. With the warm front barely clearing KC and strong capping, the severe threat didn't get as dangerous as it could have been. While our thunderstorm outlooks varified (statistically speaking), the situation didn't end up being quite as dangerous as it could have been. For the rest of the night, flooding, which is the #1 cause of weather-related death in the U.S. will be the main threat. Lots of lightning and the potential for some pea size hail to marginally severe quarter sized hail in the stronger storms should be the extent of the remaining threat tonight. A severe thunderstorm watch may replace the current watches across the area at midnight. I'll update if anything very significant materializes- but right now I don't think there's much of a tornado or damaging wind threat tonight. Tomrrow will be much cooler (most of the day in the 50s!) and rainy through the morning. We'll summarize the severe weather reports from today tomorrow evening. Have a good night!

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