Sunday Afternoon Update

Latest SPC convective outlook corroborates my thoughts from late last night, as a dangerous and volatile situation will likely unfold tomorrow afternoon and evening in south-central and southeast KS, southwest MO, and northeast OK. As for KC- 1 thing is key to the forecast for tomorrow. I believe the SPC kept the moderate risk just out of the metro because of the relatively low CAPE forecast on many of the model runs. If we can get sufficient daytime heating then the outbreak that is already forecast south of here could move northward. The latest GFS runs have suggested that this may happen with CAPE values close to 3000 j/kg late tomorrow night. For now, I'll give this forecast: severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging winds, and maybe an isolated tornado for the metro area, sometime between 10PM and 2AM tomorrow night / Tuesday morning. Earlier in the day, showers with the possibility of some small hail will affect the area, moving out in the afternoon. Depending on how long the sun can come out for, KC will need to watch tomorrow night's situation closely. This is evolving into an extremely dangerous situation for a region near KC. . . so surrounding areas, including KC, need to pay close attention to ANY forecast variance.